The Affordable Care Act Numbers Battle

The Liberals have another problem – the ACA (Obamacare). It’s a failure, they know it, and they are scrambling to put perfume-on-a-pig.

Days before the April 1st speech reporting of the number of ACA (Affordable Care Act) enrollees, yours truly predicted the final number (7.1 Million) that would be announced in the Rose Garden by an agitated Barrack Obama.

Since the announcement of 7.1 Million sign ups through the ACA exchanges, there is an air in Washington the battle over the future of the ACA is over. Target reached, game won, game over. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The battle over ACA now begins in earnest. The game is not over, the war is not lost. The outcome will be affected, for good or bad, by the Nov 2014 elections. Conservatives have the opportunity to gain control of the Senate and keep the House. If that happens we have a chance to if not halt entirely, at least slow down, the destruction wrought by the passage of the ACA.

The announced number of sign-ups for ACA is questionable at best. I was able to pull that number (7.1 million) out of the air, just like the administration did. Their original target was 7 million, so the number was surely going to be that. And the administration didn’t dare eclipse that target by so much to make it an obvious lie, so 7.1 was enough to claim victory. But it was and is a lie.

I predicted 7.1 because I know how these people think and act.

The administration claims they don’t have the information to show the number of people who have made their first ACA premium payment, yet they are dead-on accurate with the number of enrollees? Not likely. They either have both numbers and/or neither. In either event, it’s a lie. A partial truth is a lie.

Yesterday I spoke to a person who I knew signed up through the ACA exchange in Dec 2013 and asked him how many premium payments has he made so far. He said “none, I haven’t received a bill.” He’s ‘covered’ but not paying. How many more of these new enrollees are exactly the same? Covered but not paying.

The administration claiming the 7.1 million number is like me saying “it’s raining outside” when I’m looking out the window and see no evidence of rain. You see I didn’t qualify my statement with any boundaries. My statement is accurate because it surely raining somewhere in the world – the only thing I stated was “it’s raining outside.”

The Administration has purposely made an unqualified statement concerning the number of ACA exchange sign-ups.

They claim to know how many have signed up and thereby are now “covered” – But they don’t know how many have paid?

They claim to know how many now have insurance – but they fail to mention how many have lost their insurance.

They imply these 7.1 are newly insured – but they fail to mention the number of those who lost their plan and enrolled in ACA to get a replacement plan. Net loss zero, net gain zero.

They imply these 7.1 are now insured – but fail to mention how many of the 7.1 million enrollees qualify for Medicaid, and hence will pay nothing. Nor do they mention the only way to become a Medicaid recipient now is through the ACA exchange.

According to the DHS report:


On page 10 we find: “The most significant change to Medicaid is the expansion of Medicaid eligibility beginning in FY 2014. This expansion, together with greater participation by individuals eligible under current rules, is projected to add 14.9 million people to enrollment in 2014”

So the administration knew Medicaid expansion for 2014 would be 14.9 million. And we are absolutely correct in concluding the 7.1 million target heralded by the Obama administration is meaningless.

They claim they know how many now have insurance – but they fail to give us any demographic information as to age, race, or sex. This is important because it will indicate the sustainability of the program. A certain percentage of premium paying younger people are required to offset the cost of the poor and elderly.

The only two reasons this information is being withheld can be they either don’t know (which if that’s the case the 7.1 million number is a guess), or they do know and the report indicates the program is a dismal failure to this point. I suspect the latter.

Then a Rand.org study (which is yet unpublished) was brought to light by The L.A. Times that concluded the net gain in insured was less than 1 million. But it seems pressure was brought to bear and now a newly published study by Rand shows some better than thought increases in the number of insured to around 9 million.

Convenient don’t you think?

I’m not faulting the Rand report, I’m faulting the media for twisting the results of the study into a positive that simply doesn’t exist. For example:

A couple of facts from the same report.

“Enrollment in employer-sponsored insurance plans increased by 8.2 million.” That’s 1.1 million more than the administrations 7.1.

Of  Obama’s 7.1 million “Medicaid enrollment increased by 5.9.” That’s only a net gain of 1.2 million.

“By our estimate, 3.9 million people are now covered through the state and federal marketplaces.” That’s not even close to 7.1.

Do not be deceived, the progressives have not won anything, they just want us to think they have.

Then there is this example of twisting the facts to fit, a graph included in an article published In the Business Insider  Entitled:

This May Be The Best Evidence Yet That Obamacare Is Working


But is it really? What the graph clearly shows is:

There were more insured Americans under Bush

The number of uninsured Americans has grown every year under the Obama Administration.

The only improvement indicated was when millions of Americans became ‘covered’ under Obamacare at SOMEONE ELSES EXPENSE. In other words, they were given coverage.

The graph shows the failure of Obamacare as well as highlighting the administration’s failed economic policy.

Since the first open enrollment program is officially closed, I wonder if you will see stories about the uninsured being shut out of the program?

Barrack Obama said “The ACA is the law of the land, and its here to stay.” While it may be the law of the land, it can be changed and while history would indicate that the ACA is here to stay like any other large government welfare program, it can be reduced to a controllable and viable level.

Remember this program was not a bi-partisan effort. No Republican voted for the passage of the ACA. Every voting member was a progressive Democrat. It was passed at the edge of legality and by a simple majority.

The original bill, which was less than 250 pages has grown to the current 900 pages, and has more than 11,000 pages of regulations to accompany it.  It’s an out of control bureaucracy already, imagine what it will be if allowed to continue without constraint.

The battle over the future of the ACA is just beginning; it’s time to take the battle to the polls in Nov 2014.